Global Plastics Treaty at Risk as US and Oil States Push to Weaken Agreement

Geneva summit threatened by political divergence and fossil fuel influence

The final round of negotiations for a global treaty to end plastic pollution has opened in Geneva under intense strain. While over 170 countries are participating, stark divisions have emerged between those advocating for binding production limits and oil-producing nations—led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States—who are pushing to dilute the treaty’s ambition.

The talks represent the culmination of a process launched by the UN Environment Assembly in 2022 to establish a legally binding agreement by the end of 2025. However, momentum is now threatened by mounting pressure from petrochemical lobbies, political shifts in the U.S., and divergent national interests.

U.S. policy shift and industry lobbying reshape treaty landscape

The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has directly impacted the American position. Under the new administration, the U.S. has realigned itself with fossil fuel exporters by opposing caps on plastic production and favouring a treaty focused solely on downstream waste management.

Delegates and observers noted that fossil fuel–aligned nations are working in lockstep with petrochemical industry representatives to steer the treaty away from meaningful production limits. Industry groups argue that plastic is essential to modern economies and that innovation in recycling and waste handling should be the priority.

Over 1,400 participants, including negotiators, scientists, and lobbyists, are attending the session. Analysts warn that strong industry presence could result in a treaty too weak to meaningfully curb the surge in global plastic output.

Calls for binding production caps grow louder

Many countries, including EU members and small island developing states, argue that the treaty must address plastic pollution at the source by capping the production of virgin plastic, much of which is derived from fossil fuels. Without such limits, global plastic production is expected to more than double by 2060, further exacerbating environmental damage and public health risks.

Critics of the current trajectory say the treaty risks becoming “a toothless political declaration” unless negotiators resist pressure from oil-producing states and industry groups. Several African and Pacific Island nations have openly opposed the idea of a voluntary-only framework.

Clock ticking on final outcome

The Geneva negotiations are viewed as the last formal opportunity to finalise the terms of a global plastics treaty. If consensus is not reached, discussions may be deferred or risk being reshaped entirely by a smaller coalition of ambitious countries.

Despite the challenges, many stakeholders remain committed to securing a binding international agreement that includes production controls. “The science is clear, the urgency is real,” said one negotiator. “This is the moment to decide whether we tackle plastic pollution seriously or not at all.”