Farming Expansion Threatens to Reignite Amazon Deforestation

The Amazon, long seen as a symbol of resilience, could soon face a renewed wave of deforestation. At the centre of the controversy is Brazil’s Soy Moratorium, a voluntary agreement that bans the purchase of soya grown on land deforested after 2008. The deal has been credited with drastically reducing forest loss and is frequently cited as a global model for supply-chain accountability.

But as COP30 continues in Belém, a coalition of powerful agribusiness interests and supportive politicians is campaigning to end the ban, calling it a “cartel” that restricts competition in one of Brazil’s most profitable sectors. Environmentalists, however, warn that reversing it could unleash a new surge of forest clearance.

The Push to Dismantle the Moratorium

Supporters of the moratorium include many of the world’s largest food retailers Tesco, Sainsbury’s, M&S, Aldi, Lidl, McDonald’s, Greggs, and KFC all signatories to the UK Soy Manifesto, representing roughly 60% of soy imports into the UK. The coalition argues that maintaining the moratorium helps guarantee that European supply chains remain deforestation-free.

“We urge all actors within the soy supply chain, including governments, financial institutions and agribusinesses, to reinforce their commitment to the ban and ensure its continuation,” the group said in a joint statement earlier this year.

Public opinion appears to align: a World Wildlife Fund survey found that 70% of UK respondents support eliminating deforestation from imported products.

Despite this, Brazilian farming associations claim the moratorium unfairly limits regional growth. Vanderlei Ataídes, president of the Soya Farmers Association of Pará, said: “Our state has lots of room to grow and the soy moratorium is working against this development. I don’t understand how the ban helps the environment. I can’t plant soya beans, but I can use the same land to plant corn, rice, cotton or other crops. Why can’t I plant soya?”

The issue has even divided Brazil’s government: the Justice Ministry has suggested investigating the agreement for possible anti-competitive behaviour, while the Environment Ministry and the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office have defended its legality and necessity.

A Policy That Changed the Forest’s Fate

First signed nearly two decades ago, the Soy Moratorium followed a Greenpeace campaign that exposed how soya cultivated on deforested land was being used in animal feed, including for chicken sold by McDonald’s. The fast-food giant subsequently became one of the agreement’s early champions, committing not to buy soya grown on newly cleared land

The results were dramatic. Deforestation rates in the Amazon fell to historic lows by 2012, during President Lula’s second term. Although forest loss spiked again under Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, it has since declined during Lula’s current presidency.

Still, the moratorium’s future hangs in the balance. Bel Lyon of the World Wildlife Fund warned that ending the agreement “would be a disaster for the Amazon, its people, and the world, because it could open up an area the size of Portugal to deforestation.”

Local Impacts and Global Stakes

For small farmers living on the edges of soy plantations, the consequences of deforestation are already tangible. Raimundo Barbosa, who grows cassava near Santarém, described how forest loss affects daily life: “Where there is forest, it is normal, but when it is gone it just gets hotter and hotter and there is less rain and less water in the rivers.”

Adding to the pressure is Brazil’s plan to construct a new railway connecting agricultural regions in the south with ports in the Amazon. The infrastructure promises to lower transport costs and may intensify incentives to clear more land for soya.

Science Warns of a Tipping Point

Researchers fear that further deforestation could push the Amazon towards an irreversible collapse. Atop a 45-metre monitoring tower deep in the rainforest, veteran scientist Bruce Fosberg has spent decades tracking changes in carbon, water vapour, and nutrient exchange between the forest and the atmosphere. His findings are stark: “The living forest is closing down, and not producing water vapour and therefore rainfall.”

When trees are lost to logging, fire, or heat stress, the forest releases less moisture, leading to lower rainfall and worsening drought. This cycle can eventually transform vast areas of rainforest into dry savannah. Such a shift would not only release immense stores of carbon but also disrupt rainfall patterns across continents, threatening millions of lives and species that depend on the Amazon’s stability.

Global Crossroads

The battle over the Soy Moratorium is more than a trade dispute; it’s a test of whether environmental progress can survive political and economic pressure. As Brazil prepares to expand infrastructure and agricultural output, the decision to keep or lift the ban will reveal the nation’s true environmental priorities.

For now, scientists, activists, and Indigenous communities warn that losing the moratorium would mean more than forest loss; it would mean losing the delicate equilibrium that sustains one of Earth’s greatest ecosystems.