A Turning Point in Sight: Emissions, Energy, and the Race Toward a Peak

New figures show that fossil fuel use is set to release more carbon dioxide this year than ever before, a reminder that global efforts to cut emissions remain too slow to meet international climate targets. As negotiators gather for COP30 in Brazil, the world faces a mixed picture: emissions from fossil fuels and cement are expected to rise to 38.1bn tonnes of CO₂, contributing to a total of 42.2bn tonnes from all human activities in 2025

Yet there is a notable shift. Emissions growth over the past decade has slowed dramatically from 1.9% per year the previous decade to 0.3% per year today. Researchers point to the rise of renewable energy as a major factor, with 35 countries managing to cut fossil fuel emissions while still expanding their economies. “We’re not yet in a situation where the emissions go down [as] rapidly as they need to,” said Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia, “but at the same time there are a lot of positive developments”

Renewables Surge as Fossil Power Plateaus

One of the clearest signs of transition lies in electricity generation. Analysis from Ember suggests that fossil fuel use in the power sector has flatlined in 2025, possibly marking the first year of a permanent plateau. What makes this moment unusual is that electricity demand increased significantly, yet the growth was met not by coal or gas, but by wind and especially solar energy

“Solar power is growing at a record pace, and faster than any electricity source in history,” said Nicolas Fulghum of Ember. He noted that for centuries economic growth depended almost entirely on fossil fuels, but “over the last decade, that’s changed for the first time”

This matters because the power sector is the largest single source of global emissions—and its direction influences every other part of the energy system. As more households adopt electric vehicles, heat pumps, and clean technologies, electricity’s role becomes even more central. “Whatever happens in the power sector has an outsized influence on what happens for emissions worldwide,” Fulghum said

The Peak May Be Near But Not Enough

Signs from multiple analyses, including the International Energy Agency, indicate that global energy-related emissions could peak within a few years. Such a milestone would be historic, but experts caution that peaking is only the beginning. As Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter explains, “As long as we emit CO₂, the warming will continue… to stop further warming, we have to bring net emissions to zero”

A temporary plateau still leaves the world far from safety. Even if emissions growth slows or reverses, accumulated CO₂ will continue to heat the planet. The question is not just how fast emissions rise, but how quickly they can be driven down.

A Stark Warning for COP30

To coincide with the climate summit, Climate Action Tracker released an analysis showing the world is still on course for 2.6°C of warming by the end of the century based on current policies, a trajectory largely unchanged in recent years. Dr. Bill Hare of the group captured the moment starkly: “It’s very clear that we have never had a better chance to do this. It’s also clear that we’ve never been in a worse situation”

He warned that without firm action, COP30 could entrench fossil fuels further, pushing temperatures toward 2.5°C or even 3°C. Yet he also pointed to the opportunity ahead: a world where accelerating technologies could help steer the planet in the opposite direction.

A Planet on the Edge Or on the Brink of Progress

The story told by the data is one of contradictions. Emissions remain historically high, and political uncertainty clouds progress. But renewable energy is expanding at a pace unseen in any previous generation. The world may be approaching its first real emissions peak not because growth has stalled, but because clean alternatives are finally reshaping the energy landscape.

The dilemma remains, as Dr. Hare described it: a world poised between risk and possibility. With clear decisions at COP30 and beyond, the next decade could determine which path prevails.