New research suggests the UK may struggle to meet its legally binding net zero target by 2050 due to one critical but overlooked factor: water scarcity. With England already facing pressure on its supplies, upcoming carbon capture and hydrogen developments both water-intensive technologies could push some regions into significant deficits.
The warning comes as tensions rise between government officials, regulators, and the water industry, all while the Environment Agency signals the possibility of widespread drought next year.
Industrial Demand Could Outpace Supply
The analysis, led by Prof Simon Mathias at Durham University, assessed England’s five major industrial clusters: Humberside, north-west England, the Tees Valley, the Solent and the Black Country. The team found that decarbonisation projects could require up to 860 million litres of water per day by 2050, placing new pressure on already stretched systems.
In some regions, deficits could begin as early as 2030.
- Anglian Water could face a 130 million-litre-per-day shortfall by 2050.
- United Utilities may see deficits of 70 million litres per day by 2030.
Water companies disputed parts of the forecast, noting that existing plans already include allowances for increased demand. However, they agreed that the growing push toward hydrogen and carbon capture requires urgent system-wide foresight.
A System Struggling to Adapt
The findings expose long-standing weaknesses in England’s water management. A spokesperson for Water UK said that while companies have finally begun receiving approval to build new reservoirs after decades of delays, current water forecasts “do not account for the government’s economic or low-carbon ambitions.” Without adjustments, the infrastructure being built now may fall short of future industrial needs.
Business water use is often excluded from planning frameworks, according to Anglian Water, a gap that prevents companies from making essential investments and undermines resilience to climate impacts.
Wave, the retailer that commissioned the research, echoed those concerns. “The government and “Ofwat” are allowing businesses and these big projects to sort themselves out in terms of how they’re going to get their water,” said Nigel Corfield. “We generally don’t think that’s right, because this is about energy security.”
Government Response and the Path Forward
The government maintains that large-scale hydrogen projects will require sustainable water-sourcing plans and says carbon capture approval will depend on strict environmental protections. It also points to major investments already underway, including:
- £104 billion in private funding to cut leakage and build new reservoirs;
- £10.5 billion for flood defences aimed at protecting nearly 900,000 properties by 2036.
Yet some experts argue the problem is not a lack of water, but a lack of modern management.
Prof Dieter Helm, an economist at the University of Oxford, criticised the outdated system, saying, “It’s worse than an analogue industry.” He argued England needs a “data revolution” in which every drop of water is metered and reported in real time, overseen by a new independent catchment regulator rather than water companies themselves.
Such a regulator, he suggests, would integrate live data on abstraction, river flows, sewage discharge and rainfall allowing the public and policymakers to understand exactly how new industrial projects would affect water systems.
A Coming Shortage Without Action
The urgency is real: government and Environment Agency forecasts show that England could face a 6-billion-litre-per-day water deficit by 2055 unless major improvements occur. With climate change intensifying drought risk and decarbonisation set to increase industrial water use, proactive planning is becoming essential rather than optional.
